Measuring China Against Deng Xiaoping's Famous "Ten Ifs"
A Yardstick for Testing Reform and Opening Up
By Fu Xiao. Xianren Chashe (The Idlers' Teahouse), January 11, 2026. Translated by Vero Publishing.
There is a phenomenon these days: whenever anyone raises doubts about or criticizes some social phenomenon, those who are quick to curse others as "leftist thugs" immediately bristle with rage and, without allowing any argument, slap on the big hat of "opposing reform and opening up." It is as if they were tigers whose backsides no one may touch.
In fact these people are not really defending reform and opening up. What is on their minds is, I suspect, known to everyone on earth.
It cannot be denied that the remarkable achievements of reform and opening up are plain for all to see. But no gold is pure. Reform and opening up cannot be free of flaws, or shortcomings if you like. Anyone who does not admit this is no materialist.
Practice is the sole criterion of truth. Comrade Deng Xiaoping, the chief architect of the magnificent undertaking of reform and opening up, addressed this question in many speeches. Theoretical researchers later summed these up as the "Ten Ifs," as follows:[1]
1. On the road of development and common prosperity
"If we took the capitalist road, we might enable a few percent of China's population to become rich, but we could never solve the problem of prosperity for 90 percent of the people."
Source: "Building Socialism with Chinese Characteristics," Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping*, Vol. III, p. 64.*
2. On the dominant position of public ownership
"If we follow our present policy of opening up, by the time per capita GNP reaches several thousand US dollars, we still will not have produced a new bourgeoisie. The basic means of production will remain owned by the state and by collectives, that is, publicly owned."
Source: "Speech at the Third Plenary Session of the Central Advisory Commission," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 91.*
3. On the fundamental criterion of policy
"If our policies led to polarization, it would mean that we had failed."
Source: "Unity Depends on Ideals and Discipline," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 111.*
4. On preventing a new bourgeoisie
"If a new bourgeoisie emerged, it would mean that we had truly strayed onto the wrong path."
Source: "Unity Depends on Ideals and Discipline," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 111.*
5. On building a socialist culture and ethics
"But if the social ethos deteriorates, what is the point of making a success of the economy? We would degenerate in another respect, and that would in turn cause the whole economy to degenerate. If things went on like that, we would end up in a world of rampant embezzlement, theft and bribery."
Source: "Speech at a Meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 154.*
6. On the local results of the capitalist road
"If we took the capitalist road, a small number of people in certain areas might get rich more quickly, forming a new bourgeoisie and producing a crop of millionaires. But they would never amount to more than 1 percent of the population, while the great majority would remain unable to escape poverty."
Source: "China Can Only Take the Socialist Road," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 208.*
7. On the superiority of the socialist system
"What we practice is socialism ... If by then, with a population of 1.5 billion, per capita GNP reaches US$4,000 and annual GNP reaches US$6 trillion ... that will show that socialism is superior to capitalism."
Source: "To Uphold Socialism We Must Eliminate Poverty," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 225.*
8. On the consequences of taking the capitalist road
"If we took the capitalist road, a few people might become rich, but the great majority would long remain in poverty, and there would be a revolution in China."
Source: "Draw on Historical Experience and Guard Against Wrong Tendencies," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 229.*
9. On polarization and social stability
"If there were polarization, things would be different. Contradictions between ethnic groups, between regions and between classes would all sharpen, and so would contradictions between the central and local authorities. That could lead to disorder."
Source: "Seize the Opportunity to Develop the Economy," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 364.*
10. On the socialist system avoiding polarization
"If the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer, polarization will emerge. The socialist system should and can avoid polarization. One solution is for the areas that have become prosperous first to pay more taxes and profits to support the development of poor areas."
Source: "Excerpts from Talks Given in Wuchang, Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shanghai," Selected Works*, Vol. III, p. 374.*
How Should These "Ten Ifs" Be Understood?
I believe they should be looked at from two angles. First, Deng Xiaoping, as the chief architect of reform and opening up, was full of confidence in it himself. He firmly believed it was the right road to make the country rich and strong and to raise the people's well-being rapidly, and that it would not go astray. Second, these statements are not merely hypothetical. They set out a series of key criteria for testing the success or failure of reform: whether China's reform and opening up keeps to the socialist road, and whether its ultimate goal is common prosperity.
Comrade Deng Xiaoping stressed many times that practice is the sole criterion of truth. He also said: "I belong to the school of seeking truth from facts. I haven't read many books, but I believe in these four words."[2] Continually testing reform and opening up is therefore entirely in keeping with Comrade Deng Xiaoping's requirement to seek truth from facts. Those who refuse criticism, will not face differing voices and fear the test of practice are not true materialists, and they seriously violate Comrade Deng Xiaoping's requirement to seek truth from facts.
In the early period of reform and opening up, when calling a halt to the great debate over whether something was "capitalist or socialist," Comrade Deng Xiaoping proposed the criteria of the "three favorables,"[3] one of which is "whether it is favorable to raising the people's living standards." It should be stressed that "the people" here means the basic members of society, with working people as the main body, not a tiny so-called "social elite."
In the Chinese political context, the people are the makers of history and the fundamental force that determines the future and destiny of the Party and the state. The people are always at the center of national development, the agents of every undertaking and the end for whose sake it is pursued. So those who test reform and opening up should be the broad masses of the people, not a tiny social elite.
What, then, is the yardstick for testing reform and opening up? In my view, it should be Comrade Deng Xiaoping's "Ten Ifs." What do you, my readers, think?
Translator's Notes
1. The "Ten Ifs." All ten passages come from the Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Volume III, whose official English edition was published by the Foreign Languages Press (1994). The renderings here are the translator's own, made from the Chinese; their wording may differ slightly from the official English edition, and page numbers refer to the Chinese edition. The wording of If No. 3 and No. 4 follows the established English rendering.
2. "I belong to the school of seeking truth from facts." A remark Deng made during his 1992 southern tour.
3. The "three favorables" (三个有利于). Deng's criteria, set out during the 1992 southern tour, for judging any policy: whether it is favorable to developing the productive forces of a socialist society, to increasing the overall strength of the socialist state, and to raising the people's living standards. The author places them "in the early period of reform and opening up," but they date from 1992.