During the Cultural Revolution, New China was one of the fastest growing countries in the world.
Jinggangshan View Jinggangshan View 1927
May 18, 2025 20: 48
Many people say that the first three decades of the PRC developed too slowly, especially during the Cultural Revolution, when development stagnated and the economy collapsed.
Whether development was fast or slow during the first three decades of the PRC and the Cultural Revolution was supported by data.
I. Speed of industrial development in major economies
1. Industrial production index of the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, West Germany, the United Kingdom, France, India. Data Source: Foreign Economic Statistics 1949-1976, edited by the Editorial Group of Foreign Economic Statisticians, published by China Financial and Economic Press.
2. China's Industrial Production Index 1949-1978. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, "Summary of National Economic Statistics for the 30 Years Since the Founding of New China"
3. On the basis of the above data, the average annual industrial growth rate of countries from 1949 to 1976 was calculated as follows:
It can be seen that between 1949 and 1976, the industrial growth rate in New China was the fastest. The following diagram shows:
It can be seen that New China has leapfrogged ahead of Japan, one of the fastest growing countries after the war.
It was said that the Liberation War had just ended in 1949 , and that it would be unfair to use 1952 , after the recovery period , as the benchmark .
We calculated the industrial growth rates of countries from 1952 to 1976:
It can be seen that even on a 1952 basis, the development of New China ranked second, behind Japan, one of the fastest developing countries after the war.
I cannot find the four tigers - Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea - for their average annual industrial growth rates from 1949 to 1978. By default, the average annual industrial growth rate of the tigers is higher than that of New China.
Let us look again at what some call stagnant industrial growth rates during the Cultural Revolution, when they were compared to the countries mentioned above.
On the basis of 1965, the average annual growth rate of industry in 1966-1976 was 9.53 per cent.
It can be seen that during the Cultural Revolution, the average annual industrial growth rate of New China ranked second only to Japan during the period of high development. The diagram is as follows:
II. The pace of industrial development before and after reform and opening up
1. The industrial production index from 1949 to 1978 is as shown above.
II. Industrial production index, 1978-2008. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook 2009
The industrial production of the first three decades of New China included manufacturing and construction, and thus corresponded to the secondary industry in the table.
In 1949-1978 (29 years), the average annual industrial growth rate in New China was 13.48%, corresponding to 11.47% in 1978-2007 (29 years after the reopening of the economy).
Similarly, some would say that using 1949 as a base is unfair. For the sake of equity, I made four control groups based on the same length of time to calculate the average annual industrial growth rate.
Each of the above-mentioned control groups used the same amount of years, for example, the first control group was from 1949 to 1978 before the change, a total of 29 years; The reopening also took 29 years, from 1978 to 2007. Other control groups went the same way.
The pace of development in the various intervals is as follows:
The diagram is as follows (blue is before the change, orange is after the change):
According to some, "the decade was a catastrophe that destroyed production and stagnated development." What are the facts like?
On the basis of 1965, the average annual growth rate of industry in 1966-1976 was 9.53 per cent;
When based on 1978, the first decade after the reopening, the annual industrial growth rate in 1979-1989 was 10.33%.
If the annual industrial growth rate for the period 1980 - 1990 is 9.85 per cent, based on 1979, starting with 1980, when contract production began to reach the household level. This is basically the same as 9.53 percent in the decade of the Cultural Revolution, or a relatively small gap.
III. Growth rate of agriculture in major economies
1. Agricultural production index for the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, West Germany, the United Kingdom, France and India. Data Source: Foreign Economic Statistics 1949-1976, edited by the Editorial Group of Foreign Economic Statisticians, published by China Financial and Economic Press.
2. China Agricultural Production Index 1949-1978. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, "Summary of National Economic Statistics for the 30 Years Since the Founding of New China"
3. On the basis of the above data, the average annual growth rate of agriculture in all countries from 1949 to 1976 was calculated as follows:
It can be seen that between 1949 and 1976, the agricultural growth rate in New China was the fastest.
To everyone's complete surprise, agricultural development in the new China has been said to be slow, and the results have been so bright - brilliant. The graphics are more obvious:
As with industrial data, the annual growth rate of agricultural production in New China remains exceptional, outpacing that of other major economies.
In particular, it is worth noting that Soviet agriculture was hacked for so many years, and from the data, the Soviet Union's agricultural production growth rate was also higher than that of major capitalist countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan.
Similarly, some would say that using data from 1950 is not fair. Then let's look at the rate of agricultural development in all countries between 1952 and 1976, using the year 1952 as a base.
It can be seen that between 1952 and 1976, the pace of agricultural development in New China was second only to that of the Soviet Union.
IV. The pace of agricultural development before and after reform and opening up
1. The agricultural production index from 1949 to 1978 is as shown above.
2. Index of agricultural production, 1978-2008. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook 2009
In 1949-1978 (29 years), the average annual growth rate of agriculture in New China was 4.32 percent, compared with 4.58 percent in 1978-2007 (29 years after the reopening of the country).
If the annual growth rate of agriculture was 4.55% starting in 1980, when production was distributed to households, using 1979 as the basis for 29 years, 1979-2008.
Arguably, it was almost flat.
V. Comparison of GDP growth rates between New China and countries (regions) in the world
The author inquired about the GDP growth data of various countries (regions) of the World Bank, the earliest data is 1961. Based on this data, I have calculated the average annual GDP growth rate of these countries (regions) between 1961 and 1978. Some countries (region) are not included in the statistics because of lack of data, and several countries (region), because they do not have complete data, can only make partial statistics.
According to the data in the 1982 China Statistical Yearbook of the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual growth rate of China's total social product from 1949 to 1978 was 9.37%.
The statistical ranking results are as follows:
A total of 103 countries (regions) can be counted, and it can be seen that the annual growth rate of the GDP of New China ranks fourth, exceeding that of developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan, and also exceeding that in most developing countries. Ahead of New China are Oman (No. 1), Botswana (No. 2) and South Korea (No. 3).
If we look at the top three, the first is Oman, the country that discovered oil in 1964 and the GDP started to take off. The following diagram shows:
Second place is Botswana, which gained independence in 1966 and discovered diamond mines soon after, from which GDP took off. The following diagram shows:
Former socialist countries (such as Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary in Eastern Europe) and Taiwan, China, do not have pre-1978 data in the World Bank database and are therefore not included in the rankings.
Some would still say that it is unfair to use 1949 as a baseline, and that the average annual growth rate of the GDP of the People's Republic of China was 7.92%, based on 1952.
The statistical ranking is as follows:
It can be seen that even based on 1952, the annual growth rate of New China was very impressive, ranking eighth.Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Côte d'Ivoire and Iran are added.
Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan, also known as the Asian tigers, mainly inherited industrial transfers from Europe and the United States and received significant investment from developed capitalist countries in Europe and the U.S., thus creating a miracle of economic boom. Iran's rapid development is due to the heavy investment by the United States in oil and developed capitalist countries in Europe and the United States.Côte d'Ivoire's rapid economic growth after independence in the 1960s was largely driven by increased exports of coffee, cocoa and timber, as well as heavy investment by its colonial power, France.
It can be said that none of the countries (regions) ahead of New China achieved their rapid development without the joint embargo of the developed capitalist bloc led by the United States, and without exception they received significant investment from the United States and Europe. The exception is New China.
Under the joint embargo imposed by the world's leading developed capitalist countries, no country (region) has been able to grow normally, let alone develop rapidly - except in New China under Chairman Mao Zedong. Chairman Mao's new China achieved rapid economic growth, which in itself was a wonder of the world - especially since the United States in America coerced the major capitalist countries into embargoing on the new China.
Apart from New China, perhaps there is only Lenin and Stalin's socialist Soviet Union (the author has not verified this, only on subjective guesswork). Not rigorous enough).
VI. Comparison of GDP growth rates between New China and countries (regions) in the world during the Cultural Revolution
The vast majority of people say that the economy stagnated and collapsed during the Cultural Revolution.
Deng, vol. II, Speech at the Opening of the National Scientific Congress (18 March 1978):
[ We had a sharp and bitter struggle with the Gang of Four over the question of whether or not to carry out the Four Modernizations。The "Gang of Four" said nonsense that "the day of the realization of the four modernization period is the time of the restoration of capitalism" and carried out crazed destruction, which left China's national economy once on the verge of collapse, and the gap between science and technology and the world's advanced level was widening.]
The author has written several articles before that on the economic and financial situation during the Cultural Revolution.
Recommended reading:
The first three decades of New China left great dividends for reform and opening up
Learning from Deng's Selected Essays (24) Poor for thousands of years (1)
The First Three Decades of New China and Reform and opening up - accumulation and borrowing
Study in Deng's Selected Essays (13) Did the economy collapse during the Cultural Revolution?
Previous sections of this article compared the economic growth data of the People's Republic of China from 1949 to 1978 and from 1952 to 1978 with countries (regions) around the world. This section separately compares the average annual growth rate during the Cultural Revolution with countries (regions) around the world. Data sources are the same as in Part V of this article.
Based on 1965, before the Cultural Revolution, the average annual economic growth rate of the New China during the Cultural revolution was 7.66%, ranking tenth, still surpassing all developed countries (regions) as well as most developing countries (region).
VII.
Managing the World, No. 3, 2022: The theoretical and practical logics of the formation and development of the basic economic system since the founding of New China
[ By the end of the 1970s , China had almost all the industrial sectors that the Western countries had .
The famous American scholar Maurice Mysner once said:“In fact, Mao Zedong's era was far from what is now widely rumored to be an era of economic stagnation. It was the greatest modern era in the history of the world, no less than the most violent period of industrialization experienced by several of the major upstarts on the modern industrial stage, including Germany, Japan, and Russia.
Before the end of 1978, New China had a complete and independent industrial system, which was of particular significance. Such countries (regions) were a very, very small minority at the time.
Academic Monthly, No. 5, 1996, Economic Changes and Trends in New China - Three Questions with Mr. Zhang Wuchang (Author: Cheng Enfu)
Contrast between the early years of industrialization. In the early years of capitalist industrialization in the United States, industrial production grew at the fastest rate. In 1850-1859 it was 6.1 per cent, in 1860-1869 it was 8.2 per cent, 1870-1879 it was 3.1 per cent, 1880-1889 it was 5.5 per cent and 1890-1899 it was 3.3 per cent. During the first five-year plan period of normal economic functioning in China, industrial production increased by an average of 18 per cent per year. Fourth, periods of similar starting point are compared. China's industrial production base in 1952 was always larger than that of the United States in 1860, and China's industry growth rate from these two years started much faster than that of America. From 1860 to 1880, the US industrial output value increased from 1.89 billion US dollars to 5.37 billion US dollars, which increased by 180% in 20 years; From 1952 to 1957, China's total industrial output value (excluding handicrafts) rose from 27.02 billion yuan to 65.02 billion yuan, an increase of 141 percent in five years.]
Compared with the early industrialization of developed countries, I once wrote an article using data to prove that the industrialization process of New China was much faster than that of developed nations in Europe and the United States.
Recommended reading:
Excerpts are as follows:
It took 26 years for the People's Republic of China to go from 1.3 million tons to 31.7 million tons. It took 33 years for the US, 90 years for the UK (with a peak production of 28.29 million tonnes in 1970), 76 years for France (with a peak production of 25.26 million tonnes in 1973), 26 years for the USSR (like New China) and 63 years for India - until 2003.
It took the People's Republic of China 26 years to produce iron from 1.9 million tons to 35 million tons. The United States took 42 years, the United Kingdom 120 (with a maximum annual output of 17.74 million tonnes in 1965), France 93 (with a maximum annual output of 22.51 million tonnes in 1973), the Soviet Union 58 years and India 67 years - until 2007.]
VIII. Indicators per capita
Some people say that if you measured per capita, the development of New China is slower than that of other countries (regions), and slower still than it was after the reopening.
On the development of per capita indicators before and after the reopening, I wrote a previous article. Data have shown that the gap between the per capita indicators and the world's major countries (regions) after the reform has increased relative to that before the reform, and it does not become the same until 10 or even 20 years later.
Recommended reading:
Excerpts:
[China's per capita GDP to France's per capita GDP ratio, after the reform, except in 1984, 1985, other years of per capita GDP is lower than 1976, until 20 years later in 1996, beyond 1976.It took 20 years to surpass that.
China's per capita GDP to Italy's per capita GDP ratio, even more exaggerated, per capita GDP is lower than 1976, until 24 years later in 2000, it surpassed 1976. Twenty-four years.
China's share of per capita GDP in Germany is similar to France's, but a year later, and it wasn't until 21 years later, in 1997, that its share of per capita GDP exceeded that of 1976. 21 years.
For the United Kingdom, it was not until 2003 that the share of GDP per capita exceeded that of 1976. A full 27 years.
China's per capita GDP as a share of Japan's GDP did not exceed its share in 1976 until 26 years later, in 2002. 26 years.
After 19 years, in 1994, China's per capita GDP as a share of the United States surpassed 1976.
The ratio of China's per capita GDP to South Korea's per capita GDP is even worse, and until 2003 it did not surpass its 1976 ratio.]
Let's look at the rate of population growth.
China's population, 541.67 million in 1949; In 1978, 962.59 million; :: 1.32129 billion in 2007.
During the 27 years before the reopening of the country, from 1949 to 1978, the population grew at an average annual rate of 2%. During the 27 years following the reopening, from 1978 to 2007, the population grew at an average annual rate of 1.1%.
Before the reopening, the population in 1978 was 77.71% higher than in 1949; After the reopening in 2007, the population increased by 37.26% compared to 1978.
Before the reopening, New China's population grew at an average annual rate of 2.05%, second only to India among major economies. After the reopening, China's population grew at an average annual rate of 1.1%.
It is common sense that, with the same aggregate economic indicators, the per capita economic indicators of economies with fast population growth must be lower. Even under the above-mentioned growth rates, the post-restructuring per capita indicator did not surpass the pre-restructurings (1978), when compared with the world's major capitalist per capita indicators, until a few decades later.
IX. The Ninety Years of the Communist Party of China Assessment of the First Three Decades of New China
Published in June 2016 by the CPC Party History Press and Party Literature Publishing House, "Ninety Years of the Communist Party of China" by the Research Office of the Party History of the Central Committee of the CCPC:
First, an independent and relatively complete industrial system and national economic system were established on the basis of "one poverty and two whites."
...... Before Mao Zedong's death, China had not only been able to independently design and mass-produce cars, airplanes, tanks, tractors, etc., but also successfully exploded atomic bombs and hydrogen bombs, tested and successfully launched medium- and long-range missiles and artificial satellites. These developments have shocked the whole world. At the same time, we have significantly improved the level of food production and resilience to natural disasters by building waterways, carrying out agricultural infrastructure, cultivating and promoting good seeds, and promoting science-based farming.
Deng Xiaoping stated clearly in 1979:“The socialist revolution has made it possible for our country to significantly reduce the gap in economic development with the developed capitalist countries. . In the past 30 years, we have achieved progress not achieved in the past hundreds and thousands of years in the old China.”]