Deng Xiaoping: The Ten Ifs

 An article from Zhihu, October 13, 2025

At the beginning of the reform and opening up, Deng Xiaoping proposed the "Ten Ifs" to test the success or failure of the reforms, which plays an important role in evaluating China's reform and opening up.

1. If we take the capitalist road, it can make a small percentage of Chinese people rich, but it absolutely cannot solve the problem of prosperity for 90% of the people. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 64)

2. Following China's current opening-up approach, when the per capita gross national product reaches a few thousand dollars, we will not produce a new bourgeoisie; the basic means of production will remain under state ownership or collective ownership, that is, public ownership. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 91)

3. If our policies lead to polarization, we have failed. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 110)

4. If a new bourgeoisie emerges, then we have truly gone down the wrong path. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 111)

5. If social morals deteriorate, what's the point of economic success? It will corrupt in other ways, affecting the essence of the entire economy and leading to a world rife with corruption, theft, and bribery. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 154)

6. If we take the capitalist road, a few people in some localities might get rich faster, forming a new bourgeoisie and producing a batch of millionaires, while the majority remain unable to escape poverty. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 208)

7. We are implementing a socialist system; our per capita 4,000 dollars is different from that in capitalist countries, especially since China is a populous nation. If at that time the 1.5 billion population reaches 4,000 dollars per capita, it will prove that socialism is superior to capitalism. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 225)

8. If we engage in capitalism, a minority might get rich, but the majority will remain in long-term poverty, leading to revolutionary unrest in China. China's modernization can only rely on socialism, not capitalism. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 229)

9. If polarization occurs, the situation will be different: ethnic contradictions, regional contradictions, and class contradictions will intensify, along with corresponding central-local conflicts, potentially leading to chaos. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 364)

10. If the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, polarization will emerge, but the socialist system should and can avoid it. (Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 3, p. 374)